In fact, the stats model - which takes into account squad quality, the difficulty of remaining fixtures and form among other metrics - has thrown up a shake-up in the likely top three for the first time since September.
A win for Barnsley over league leaders Sheffield Wednesday ended the Owls’ near six-month unbeaten run in the league and with Plymouth beating Acrrington Stanley, it was the Pilgrims that went top.
But what about the battle at the bottom, the play-off scrap? How many points are Wednesday forecast to hit now - less than before, presumably?
Take a stroll through the very latest analytical predictions.
1. 24th - Forest Green Rovers - 30 pts
Robbed of their best players and their manager after a historic promotion from League Two, Forest Green have failed to catch-up and look doomed. The arrival of Duncan Ferguson and some promising Premier League youngsters in January hasn’t sparked a major upturn and the stats model has more than a 99% chance of relegation.. that’s despite a spiriting win over Sheffield Wednesday last month. Photo: Dan Istitene
2. 23rd - Morecambe - 38 pts
Fun fact: Morecambe have never been relegated in their entire history.. seriously. But as per the numbers, they’ll taste the drop for the first time - with a more than 99% as per their most recent form scramble. They’re a plucky team capable of scrapping their way out of trouble but it feels all too late for Derek Adams’ side. Photo: Charlotte Tattersall
3. 22nd - Accrington Stanley - 43 pts
They’ve punched above their weight for a few years now - is this the season they take the hit of relegation to League Two? FiveThirtyEight certainly think so, rating just a 13% chance of safety from relegation. A win over Port Vale last week lifted spirits but they were unable to take anything from Hillsborough to send their numbers southwards once more.
4. 21st - Cambridge United - 43 pts
After a very promising season at third tier level last time out, Cambridge have faltered after a strong start to the campaign. They may well look back on Rotherham’s approach of manager Mark Bonner as a turning point - and FiveThirtyEight have a four-in-five chance of the Us to go down. Photo: Julian Finney